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2018年5月经济金融数据前瞻:抢跑复工或助生产,难振投资

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年02月19日 11:34:19
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(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(微)(降)(
复)(工)(继)(续)(,但)(或)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(,5月)(份)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(累)(计)(同)(比)(或)(回)(落)(至)(9.7%(前)(值)(10.3%)。土)(石)(方)(限)(产)(结)(束)(后)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(赶)(工)(明)(显)(,但)(4月)(新)(开)(工)(增)(速)(已)(有)(回)(落)(,预)(计)(5月)(建)(安)(增)(速)(或)(略)(有)(放)(缓)(。去)(年)(房)(企)(拿)(地)(多)(,土)(地)(购)(置)(费)(摊)(余)(的)(贡)(献)(将)(继)(续)(较)(大)(。随)(着)(资)(金)(来)(源)(放)(缓)(,融)(资)(成)(本)(上)(升)(,销)(售)(量)(价)(齐)(跌)(,房)(企)(总)(体)(新)(拿)(地)(或)(继)(续)(较)(慢)(,但)(因)(城)(施)(策)(下)(各)(区)(域)(分)(化)(继)(续)(加)(剧)(,一)(二)(线)(偏)(弱)(,卫)(星)(城)(、都)(市)(圈)(和)(其)(他)(三)(线)(依)(然)(偏)(强)(。
基)(建)(增)(长)(将)(继)(续)(放)(缓)(
基)(建)(投)(资)(或)(继)(续)(小)(幅)(下)(滑)(至)(7.2%(前)(值)(7.6%,同)(期)(16.7%)。城)(投)(严)(监)(叠)(加)(信)(用)(违)(约)(事)(件)(增)(加)(,4-5月)(份)(,城)(投)(债)(净)(融)(资)(量)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(,5月)(份)(更)(是)(变)(为)(负)(值)(,与)(此)(同)(时)(,政)(策)(性)(银)(行)(债)(净)(融)(资)(额)(在)(2月)(份)(后)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(,4月)(份)(变)(为)(负)(值)(,尽)(管)(5月)(份)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(,但)(短)(期)(内)(对)(基)(建)(支)(撑)(有)(限)(;地)(方)(政)(府)(新)(增)(债)(务)(在)(5月)(发)(行)(692亿)(元)(,与)(去)(年)(同)(期)(相)(比)(下)(降)(55%,预)(算)(内)(财)(政)(整)(体)(来)(看)(支)(出)(快)(速)(增)(长)(的)(概)(率)(较)(小)(;加)(之)(,当)(前)(PPP的)(落)(地)(率)(也)(在)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(,出)(库)(项)(目)(不)(断)(增)(加)(,目)(前)(融)(资)(状)(况)(对)(基)(建)(增)(长)(仍)(不)(利)(。总)(体)(来)(说)(,5月)(份)(固)(定)(资)(产)(增)(速)(或)(小)(幅)(下)(滑)(至)(6.8%左)(右)((前)(值)(7.0%)。
零)(售)(或)(继)(续)(放)(缓)(
可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(走)(弱)(,房)(价)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,5月)(社)(消)(零)(售)(或)(进)(一)(步)(放)(缓)(至)(9.3%。后)(地)(产)(时)(代)(,家)(电)(家)(具)(销)(售)(或)(难)(强)(。进)(口)(车)(关)(税)(下)(调)(和)(《汽)(车)(产)(业)(投)(资)(管)(理)(规)(定)((征)(求)(意)(见)(稿)()》的)(出)(台)(催)(生)(消)(费)(者)(观)(望)(情)(绪)(,前)(三)(周)(乘)(用)(车)(销)(量)(同)(比)(下)(滑)(6%。“618”网)(购)(或)(压)(抑)(部)(分)(消)(费)(。但)(油)(价)(高)(涨)(,石)(油)(消)(费)(或)(继)(续)(反)(弹)(。
工)(业)(生)(产)(维)(持)(高)(位)(,利)(润)(小)(幅)(反)(弹)(
5月)(份)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(维)(持)(高)(位)(,在)(6.7%左)(右)((前)(值)(7.0%,同)(期)(6.5%)。4月)(份)(集)(中)(开)(工)(导)(致)(4月)(份)(工)(业)(生)(产)(快)(速)(回)(复)(,5月)(份)(以)(来)(高)(频)(数)(据)(显)(示)(工)(业)(生)(产)(仍)(较)(为)(强)(劲)(,其)(中)(6大)(发)(电)(集)(团)(耗)(煤)(量)(同)(比)(增)(长)(约)(16%(前)(值)(5.5%,同)(期)(11.0%),高)(炉)(开)(工)(率)(也)(继)(续)(反)(弹)(70%以)(上)((前)(值)(67%),但)(FAI下)(滑)(或)(小)(幅)(拖)(累)(工)(业)(生)(产)(,预)(计)(5月)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(在)(6.7%左)(右)(,高)(于)(3-4月)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(。
5月)(份)(利)(润)(增)(长)(小)(幅)(提)(升)(至)(22%左)(右)((前)(值)(21.9%)。高)(频)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,6大)(发)(电)(集)(团)(耗)(煤)(煤)(量)(5月)(同)(比)(增)(长)(在)(16%左)(右)((前)(值)(5%),高)(炉)(开)(工)(率)(继)(续)(反)(弹)(,整)(体)(工)(业)(生)(产)(区)(域)(稳)(定)(。黑)(色)(、有)(色)(、煤)(炭)(、石)(油)(、化)(工)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,短)(期)(内)(支)(撑)(PPI。预)(计)(1-5月)(利)(润)(增)(长)(小)(幅)(提)(升)(至)(16%左)(右)((前)(4月)(15%),但)(再)(看)(远)(一)(点)(,“紧)(信)(用)(”影)(响)(基)(建)(和)(地)(产)(投)(资)(,利)(润)(仍)(有)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,全)(年)(利)(润)(在)(增)(长)(或)(为)(10%左)(右)(。
信)(贷)(恐)(慌)(或)(影)(响)(信)(贷)(增)(速)(
4月)(底)(央)(行)(降)(准)(一)(定)(程)(度)(放)(大)(了)(货)(币)(乘)(数)(,对)(5月)(份)(信)(贷)(增)(长)(起)(到)(了)(支)(撑)(作)(用)(。而)(商)(业)(银)(行)(压)(缩)(委)(托)(贷)(款)(和)(信)(托)(贷)(款)(仍)(在)(继)(续)(,同)(时)(央)(行)(对)(商)(业)(银)(行)(贷)(款)(额)(度)(指)(导)(调)(控)(,使)(得)(信)(贷)(增)(长)(最)(终)(可)(能)(体)(现)(在)(人)(民)(币)(贷)(款)(和)(未)(承)(兑)(汇)(票)(的)(同)(向)(增)(长)(上)(。预)(计)(5月)(份)(社)(融)(中)(,人)(民)(币)(贷)(款)(或)(增)(加)(至)(1.2万)(亿)(元)(,而)(未)(承)(兑)(汇)(票)(金)(额)(也)(正)(增)(长)(接)(近)(1400亿)(元)(。
从)(广)(义)(货)(币)(来)(看)(,5月)(份)(部)(分)(企)(业)(债)(违)(约)(,引)(发)(了)(市)(场)(对)(债)(券)(市)(场)(违)(约)(潮)(的)(恐)(慌)(,低)(评)(级)(的)(信)(用)(债)(续)(借)(困)(难)(,开)(年)(以)(来)(财)(政)(收)(入)(频)(频)(超)(预)(期)(,而)(5月)(又)(受)(双)(税)(期)(影)(响)(,央)(行)(对)(冲)(力)(度)(可)(能)(不)(足)(,预)(计)(M2的)(增)(速)(将)(在)(低)(位)(徘)(徊)(,比)(上)(月)(略)(下)(降)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(至)(8.2%。微)(观)(企)(业)(营)(运)(活)(力)(表)(现)(不)(佳)(,M1增)(速)(或)(将)(连)(续)(第)(四)(月)(低)(于)(M2增)(速)(。
通)(胀)(小)(幅)(反)(弹)(
菜)(价)(或)(提)(振)(5月)(CPI同)(比)(或)(小)(幅)(反)(弹)(至)(1.9%(前)(值)(1.8%)。1)菜)(价)(同)(比)(反)(弹)(。立)(夏)(后)(蔬)(菜)(上)(市)(量)(增)(加)(,菜)(价)(环)(比)(季)(节)(性)(下)(跌)(,但)(去)(年)(同)(期)(气)(温)(偏)(高)(,跌)(幅)(更)(大)(,寿)(光)(和)(前)(海)(蔬)(菜)(价)(格)(同)(比)(均)(反)(弹)(,或)(对)(CPI同)(比)(边)(际)(多)(贡)(献)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。2)猪)(周)(期)(底)(部)(回)(弹)(。前)(期)(大)(养)(殖)(企)(业)(扩)(产)(能)(,小)(企)(业)(上)(产)(量)(,猪)(周)(期)(继)(续)(下)(探)(,今)(年)(猪)(价)(季)(节)(性)(反)(弹)(较)(晚)(,5月)(猪)(价)(同)(比)(跌)(幅)(仍)(在)(扩)(大)(,但)(3月)(初)(以)(来)(生)(猪)(养)(殖)(进)(入)(亏)(损)(区)(,猪)(粮)(比)(跌)(破)(6的)(盈)(亏)(平)(衡)(线)(,大)(猪)(库)(存)(去)(化)(,5月)(下)(旬)(生)(猪)(价)(格)(开)(始)(反)(弹)(。3)粮)(价)(下)(跌)(。国)(储)(稻)(谷)(大)(量)(入)(市)(,而)(米)(市)(进)(入)(消)(费)(淡)(季)(,新)(上)(小)(麦)(质)(量)(不)(佳)(,粮)(价)(回)(落)(。4)非)(食)(品)(消)(费)(品)(价)(格)(或)(继)(续)(随)(生)(产)(价)(格)(趋)(势)(放)(缓)(。5)房)(价)(放)(缓)(抑)(制)(房)(租)(。
去)(年)(同)(期)(环)(比)(负)(增)(、拉)(低)(基)(数)(,环)(保)(与)(开)(工)(叠)(加)(提)(振)(新)(增)(因)(素)(,5月)(PPI同)(比)(或)(小)(幅)(反)(弹)(至)(3.8%(前)(值)(3.4%)。1)煤)(炭)(价)(格)(反)(弹)(。煤)(炭)(进)(口)(限)(制)(令)(4月)(重)(启)(,而)(春)(季)(复)(工)(延)(后)(,下)(游)(需)(求)(释)(放)(,加)(上)(天)(气)(热)(于)(以)(往)(,6大)(发)(电)(集)(团)(耗)(煤)(超)(过)(历)(史)(同)(期)(,动)(力)(煤)(和)(焦)(煤)(价)(格)(均)(环)(比)(涨)(,同)(比)(涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(。2)高)(炉)(开)(工)(率)(继)(续)(回)(升)(,但)(复)(工)(需)(求)(延)(续)(,钢)(铁)(库)(存)(仍)(在)(回)(落)(,MyIpic综)(合)(钢)(价)(维)(持)(高)(位)(,同)(比)(涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(。3)国)(际)(油)(价)(持)(续)(上)(行)(,发)(改)(委)(上)(调)(国)(内)(成)(品)(油)(价)(格)(,能)(源)(价)(格)(同)(比)(涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(。煤)(基)(与)(油)(基)(化)(工)(品)(价)(格)(同)(样)(反)(弹)(。4)生)(态)(环)(境)(部)(组)(建)(督)(查)(组)(进)(驻)(多)(省)(市)(,开)(工)(提)(振)(,有)(色)(价)(格)(同)(比)(上)(升)(。
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